Agentic Commerce White Paper

Introduction

The world is rapidly moving toward a future where AI agents can autonomously purchase goods and services on behalf of humans. While early examples exist in voice assistants and IoT devices, these technologies have been limited in scope. Now, AI agents are no longer restricted to purchasing from a single seller—they can choose what to buy and from where, based on human prompts. However, AI agents must still navigate an online ecosystem designed for human users. As we enter the agentic era of commerce, we are witnessing the gradual demise of the traditional online shopping cart.

85% of customer interactions will be managed without human intervention by 2025. (Source: Gartner)

Why Agentic Commerce?

Agentic commerce eliminates the need for human-led checkout experiences. AI agents will:

✅ Discover products autonomously
✅ Negotiate pricing and terms in real time
✅ Execute purchases instantly—without manual confirmation

As a result, traditional checkout processes, shopping carts, and manual payments will become obsolete. Platforms like Stripe’s “Pay Now” button and PayPal’s checkout flow will be bypassed as AI streamlines transactions seamlessly.

57% of online shoppers abandon their carts due to checkout friction. (Source: Baymard Institute)

By 2030, AI-driven transactions are expected to account for up to 30% of all digital commerce. However, based on the current pace of agentic development, we predict this figure could be even higher. B2B transactions are likely to lead the charge, with B2C adoption following closely behind.

AI-driven commerce will go beyond simple purchases—it will handle complex decision-making, such as travel bookings or B2B procurement that requires research, solution-fitting, due diligence, and compliance checks. In the B2B space, AI agents could even replace existing technologies like EDI by automating data-driven purchasing tasks.

Both buyers and merchants stand to benefit. AI-driven transactions reduce human distraction, increase efficiency, and ensure optimal purchasing decisions, leading to a significant increase in global e-commerce volume.

The Rise of AI-Driven Payments

AI is already driving an increase in digital payment volume:

2024 AI-Influenced Holiday Sales: U.S. online sales reached $282 billion, a 4% increase from 2023, attributed to a 42% rise in AI-powered chatbot interactions. (Source: Reuters)
Black Friday 2024: U.S. online sales hit a record $10.8 billion, a 10.2% increase from 2023, largely due to AI-driven shopping assistance. (Source: Barron’s)

Challenges Facing Agentic Commerce

Despite its potential, agentic commerce faces several challenges, categorized by stakeholders: end customers, merchants, commerce software providers, and payment processors.

Key Barriers:

Navigating Online Checkout: AI agents currently attempt purchases by mimicking human interactions (e.g., using OpenAI’s Operator to scroll and click through online stores). However, this method is inefficient and limits AI’s full potential.
Payment Authentication: AI agents must authenticate payments securely, overcoming current security protocols such as PCI DSS compliance and 3DS authentication.

The Evolution of Payment Authentication

Currently, online payments rely on three primary methods:

Entering debit/credit card details
Logging into a digital wallet (e.g., PayPal)
Using bank details and mobile authentication

AI agents will require secure access to payment methods. Storing credit card details within AI memory is currently non-compliant with PCI DSS regulations. Instead, AI will likely integrate with digital wallets, enabling secure transactions. In the near future, AI payment authentication may eliminate card entry entirely, further driving the shift toward digital-first payment solutions.

Digital wallet usage is expected to rise by 50% by 2026, driven by AI integration. (Source: Juniper Research)

The Impact on the Payment Industry

A Shift to Lower-Cost Payment Methods?

AI-driven checkouts could prioritize cost-effective payment methods for merchants, such as direct bank transfers over card transactions. This shift may disrupt traditional payment providers, creating new opportunities for alternative payment services.

Companies like Apple, which already integrates Open Banking with Apple Pay, are well-positioned to lead the agentic commerce revolution. Traditional card networks and payment gateways must adapt or risk obsolescence. For example, Visa’s recent partnership with X highlights how incumbents are evolving to stay relevant.

Biometric authentication, powered by AI, will secure 90% of online transactions by 2027. (Source: Worldpay)

Enabling Agentic Commerce Through Payment Services

For agentic commerce to thrive, payment services must evolve to:

Support AI agents in programmatic site navigation
Enable AI-driven payment authentication
Prevent fraud and optimize checkout experiences

Today’s merchant payment infrastructure is not yet compatible with fully autonomous AI transactions. Traditional payment service deployment models—relying on acquirers, gateways, and software vendors—are too slow and rigid. The industry must develop faster, more adaptable solutions.

Future Milestones in Agentic Commerce

The transition to agentic commerce will occur in two key phases:

Merchant-Led Agentic Commerce: Merchants will optimize checkout flows to support AI-driven transactions. And initiate checkout journeys by sending payment links via a ecommerce or voice bot.
Buyer-Led Agentic Commerce: Consumers will fully empower AI agents to handle purchases autonomously.

How Shuttle is Enabling Agentic Commerce

Shuttle is pioneering solutions to bridge the gap between AI and payments:

✅ Integration with AI workflow tools like Zapier to dynamically generate checkout flows

✅ Integration with AI voice software to take payments

✅ Checkout software designed for AI agents to programmatically complete purchases

✅ Secure AI-powered payment instruments that authenticate transactions safely

Shuttle Milestones:

AI-generated checkout links for seamless payment flows
AI-powered software integrations with the payment ecosystem
AI-driven checkout automation for programmatic transactions
Secure AI wallet authentication for agentic payments

Expanding the Potential of Agentic Commerce

Beyond checkout automation, agentic commerce will revolutionize:

Dynamic pricing & negotiations: AI agents will autonomously secure volume discounts and personalized pricing.
Omnichannel shopping (Phygital): AI agents will assist in-store shopping by comparing prices, checking stock, and enhancing purchase decisions.

Abandonment rates drop by 35% when AI agents handle checkout processes. (Source: Forrester)

Additionally, AI-driven personalization will shift from being emotionally driven to data-driven, ensuring that agents make optimal purchasing decisions aligned with user preferences and buying history.

Conclusion

The era of agentic commerce is rapidly approaching, driven by AI’s ability to autonomously navigate shopping experiences, authenticate payments, and optimize purchasing decisions. To fully realize its potential, merchants and payment providers must adapt their infrastructures. Those who embrace AI-driven commerce today will be the leaders of tomorrow.